JPMorgan says BTC looks cheap next to gold, points to $170K fair value

Bitcoin is trading below its fair value relative to gold when adjusted for volatility, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

The rise in gold volatility during its rally to all-time highs in October makes the precious metal riskier and Bitcoin (BTC) “more attractive to investors,” analysts said, based on the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio falling to 1.8, meaning BTC carries 1.8 times the risk of gold. The report read:

“By taking into account this volatility ratio, which implies that bitcoin currently consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, then mechanically, the market cap of bitcoin at $2.1 trillion currently would have to rise by close to 67%, implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000. 

This mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for Bitcoin over the next 6-12 months,” JPMorgan said. 

The theoretical price forecast from JPMorgan comes amid lowered BTC price predictions from several market analysts and investment firms after BTC fell below $100,000 on Tuesday, breaching a critical level of psychological support for the first time in four months.

Related: Gold sinks below $4K: What does it mean for Bitcoin price?

Market analysts dampen Bitcoin price predictions

Some analysts now forecast that BTC is unlikely to recover the $125,000 price level by the end of 2025, due to several factors, including macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs and the Oct. 10 market crash that caused the largest 24-hour liquidation in crypto history.

Investment company Galaxy lowered its Bitcoin 2025 forecast to $120,000 from $185,000 on Wednesday, citing several factors, including BTC whales offloading 400,000 coins in October, investor rotation into competing narratives, and changing market dynamics.

“Bitcoin has entered a new phase, what we call the ‘maturity era,’ in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate,” Galaxy’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said.

The presence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) soaking up liquidity means that BTC gains will likely come at a slower pace than in the past, Thorn said.

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